IMI-Aktuell 2015/599

Syrien: Gefährlicher Stellvertreterkrieg

von: 27. Oktober 2015


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Erica D. Borghard, Sozialwissenschaftlerin an der United States Military Academy in West Point, warnt im National Interest (via Bpb-Newsletter) vor der jüngst durch die CIA vorgenommene Ausstattung syrischer Aufständischer mit schweren Waffen: „[E]ven in the context of a train-and-equip program, the U.S. found it incredibly difficult to shape the behavior of its proxies. (…) Furthermore, it is imperative to consider potential second- and third-order effects of expanding a covert program that involves weapons drops of heavy arms into an already volatile conflict. Adding American-made anti-tank missiles into the mix could prompt deeper Russian involvement, increasing potential points of friction and the risk of crisis escalation. Strengthening some Syrian rebel groups could turn the civil war into a stalemate, offering little hope for a sustainable political resolution (academic research has shown that decisive victories in civil wars are among the best predictors of a stable postwar peace).“ (jw)