IMI-Aktuell 2013/247
Ägypten: Plus ça change
(04.07.2013)
Antiwar.com (03.07.2013) verweist auf einen Artikel von John Reed, der bei Foreign Policy erschien. Er kommt zu dem Ergebnis, die vom ägyptischen Militär betriebene Absetzung Mohamad Mursis sei im amerikanischen Interesse, da dieses stark von den USA abhängig sei: „Oddly enough, this might be good news for the Pentagon, which largely built the modern Egyptian armed forces. In fact, the Egyptian Army — as the entire military is colloquially known there — may be one of the U.S. government’s best friends in the entire Arab world. American presidents have been encouraging stability in the region for more than 30 years by making the Egyptian military the muscle behind a regional superpower — one built and trained by Washington. […] All this gives the United States quite a bit of leverage when it comes to the Egyptian military, one of the most powerful forces in Egyptian society. (Some estimate that up to 40 percent of the Egyptian economy is controlled by the military.)” Insofern erscheint auch die Einschätzung der Asia Times Online (03.07.2013) realistisch, die folgende Prognose für die Post-Mursi-Außenpolitik trifft: “[A] post-Morsi Egypt will likely embed itself more firmly in the Saudi-led conservative camp, take a more assertive role vis-a-vis the crisis in Syria, provide greater assurance to Israel and put to rest the US and Israeli concerns about any regional realignment, in other words, a ‘thermidorian’ restoration of status quo foreign policy approach favored by the unreconstructed Egyptian armed forces.” (jw)